Purpose of the Study

The Pinal Projections Study is a major project by the CAAG Planning Department. The goal is a well-researched study on possible future projection scenarios for Pinal County as a single geographic unit. Based on our present schedule, draft projections are anticipated in March 2009, with final projections occurring after CAAG member review.

Pinal County is adjacent to the two major metropolitan areas of Arizona, but was principally rural until a wave of private development projects that began in the very late 1990's. Since then, the County has urbanized at a substantially greater pace, and many public sector plans (mostly transportation and general plans) have been undertaken in response to anticipated future growth.

However, the county lacks a commonly-accepted projection of population and jobs, so these plans have all been based on a variety of projection scenarios. The objective of the Pinal Projections Study is to prepare projections for Pinal County that will be commonly-accepted and used in future planning activities.

From Scenerios to Projections

The study will result in a set of three projection scenarios most likely, most optimistic, and most pessimistic for the County by decade to the year 2040. Additionally, the CAAG Planning Department will use the most likely scenario as a County control in allocating projections of housing, population and jobs to the 1,000-plus traffic analysis zones (TAZ's) in Pinal.

CAAG Regional Council will be asked to approve both the County projection scenarios as well as the TAZ projections. These will then become the official CAAG projections, to be used for future studies and plans in Pinal County. CAAG's intent is that these projections will have a shelf life at least through 2012, when it is anticipated that the State of Arizona will update County projections.

The major research questions of the Projections Study

Home Project Advisory Groups Workshops, Reviews, and the Adoption Process Research and White Papers Three-County Region Projections Market Area Assessment/Pinal County Projections Surveys Contact and Links

The Research Approach

Located between Maricopa County (the core of Metro Phoenix) and Pima County (the core of Metro Tucson), Pinal County is subject to fairly complex development pressures. Its growth since 2000 is, thus far, occurring due to physical expansion of the metropolitan areas into Pinal County. Little growth experienced thus far is due to independent causes within County. Moreover, to date most growth has been housing development, mainly for residents who commute to jobs in the adjacent large metros. The lag between population and jobs growth in newly-urbanizing fringe areas is well known, and is important for credible projections in Pinal.

This implies a two-tiered approach, being followed in this study. There are two parts:

  1. Projection scenarios of housing, population and jobs for a single geographic area that contains Maricopa, Pinal and Pima Counties. Projections will be made for the years 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040. These scenarios are being prepared by a consortium of the University of Arizona-Arizona State University.
  2. Competitive assessment of smaller geographic market areas within the large three-county region, and projections for Pinal County market areas (three county market areas available here). There are 46 market areas within the 3-County Region, as shown here. The Pinal market areas will be summed to arrive at County totals, again for the years 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040. This work is being prepared by Applied Economics.

To contact us:

Central Arizona Association of Governments
2066 W. Apache Trail, Ste. 110 Apache Junction, Arizona 85220
(520) 827-0209
Jack Tomasik, Planning Director