PINAL PROJECTIONS STUDY

Research and White Papers

The Projections Study is based on factual research. The project includes extensive expert interviews and data collection for both of the major study parts. Based on interviews and historic data, several topical white papers have been prepared. These white papers conclude with the assumptions to be used for the projection scenarios.

Three-County Region Projections This step will develop three sets of projection scenarios for the single region that includes Maricopa, Pinal and Pima Counties. The study of this single three-county area includes three major parts: (1) Demographics, (2) Economics, and (3) Projection Scenarios.

Market Area Assessment/Pinal County Projections The purpose of this stage is to allocate the projection scenarios for the 3-County megapolitan region to the market areas in Pinal County, and then to sum the market areas to arrive at Pinal County control projections. These county control projections will later be used by CAAG to derive TAZ-level projections. The Projections Study will make projections only for Pinal County, as both the Maricopa Association of Governments and the Pima Association of Governments have each prepared and adopted projections for their respective counties. Background research for this stage includes several white papers, as well as data assembly and model-building.